BEST NEW ARTIST
SHOO-INS
Duffy: She's the best-selling, and best reviewed, of 2008's "new Amys." And everyone keeps comparing her (however undeservedly) to Dusty Springfield.
Katy Perry: Her song "I Kissed a Girl" may be exploitative, and even a tad desperate, but she's cute. And the kids love it.
Leona Lewis: As the British Mariah Carey, Lewis has the pipes Grammy voters love. Better, she isn't actually Mariah (whom they loathe).
LONGER SHOTS
Vampire Weekend: Every year, one rock band sneaks in here. These glowingly-reviewed New Yorkers could be it this time.
Jordin Sparks: She had her thunder stolen by another "American Idol" winner in the last year (David Cook), but she did sell nearly 1 million of her self-titled debut CDs.
MOST LIKELY WINNER: Duffy
SONG OF THE YEAR
(Awarded to the songwriter for the composition of the cut.)
SHOO-INS
"Mercy," Duffy: Its great '60s-style melody clinches it.
"Bleeding Love," Leona Lewis: A big-boned ballad, made for the kinds of large voices Grammy adores.
"Viva La Vida," Coldplay: Not only a catchy ditty, it served as the soundtrack for the best Apple ad of the year.
"I Kissed a Girl," Katy Perry: It's flighty, but irresistible.
LONGER SHOTS
"American Boy," Estelle: An innovative song with a hook you can't miss.
"Lollipop," Lil Wayne: So popular, it's hard to ignore, even if it does rate as more oral gimmick than actual song.
"No One," Alicia Keys: It's not her best, but it's still Alicia.
MOST LIKELY WINNER: "Mercy," Duffy
RECORD OF THE YEAR
(Awarded to the artist and producer, judged by the sound of the record, and by the star's performance.)
SHOO-INS
"Mercy," Duffy: Given its perfect re-creation of a '60s bouffant of sound, how can it lose?
"Bleeding Love," Leona Lewis: Contains the kind of spiraling sound that screams "big production at work."
"Viva La Vida," Coldplay: It could be argued that the appeal of this cut comes as much from its sterling sound as from its melody or performance.
"Lollipop," Lil Wayne: Epitomizes the sonic tricks of a recording studio over the structure of a song.
LONGER SHOTS
"I Kissed a Girl," Katy Perry: It's not exactly a production vehicle, now is it?
MOST LIKELY WINNER: "Mercy," Duffy
ALBUM OF THE YEAR
SHOO-INS
"Raising Sand," Alison Krauss and Robert Plant: First, Grammy ADORES Alison, having flung no fewer than 21 statuettes her way so far. Also, Led Zeppelin never got its Grammy due, so this would be a way to make up at least some of that to their singer, Plant. More, the unlikely perfection of this pairing makes it automatically winning material. The album even sold big (1.2 million), an improbable figure for music this quiet and slow. All that should make "Raising Sand" this year's "O Brother Where Art Thou?," which, remember, stole the Best Album prize in 2001.
"Long Road Out of Eden," the Eagles: The biggest-selling album of the last year (3.5 million and counting), "Eden" reaffirms the values of classic rock. Critics may remain turned off to the Eagles' smugness, and their slickness, but the industry weasels who dominate Grammy's voting body love them for just those reasons.
"Rockferry," Duffy: Affirms the sound of classic '60s pop, along with seconding the Grammy's pick from last year (for the similarly retro Ms. Winehouse). Also, voters always love to anoint a new female star (from Norah Jones to Amy W).
"Viva La Vida," Coldplay: They've taken this prize before. And like doddering oldsters, Grammy voters love to repeat themselves.
"As I Am," Alicia Keys: It's big-selling and it salutes the values of old soul.
LONGER SHOTS
"In Rainbows," Radiohead: Though they did an end-run around the music industry — by giving the album away for free — the sheer nerve of that move had to turn people on.
"Modern Guilt," Beck: He's a Grammy fave, though this particular album had limited buzz and iffy sales.
"Death Magnetic," Metallica: The disk is perceived to be the band's comeback to hardness and speed, even though their last album accomplished this as well. That's okay, few critics picked up on that, either.
MOST LIKELY WINNER: "Raising Sand," Alison Krauss and Robert Plant
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Who do I think should win?
I'm pulling for Coldplay on most categories... Viva La Vida was an incredible album... not sure if its enough for "Song of the Year", but definitely an album of the year nod. That's where I'm torn, as Radiohead's "In Rainbows" is also up for the Album of the Year award... hmm....
In the end, I'm pretty happy with all the nominees... I think they hit it right on the head for the big major categories this year.
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